what if?

Liberal Folly

Many of the liberals I know are great folks.  Nothing more that they want to do than help people.

Sometimes, however, what may appear to be help on the surface is actually anything but.

Let me introduce you to Exhibit A:  unemployment insurance.

To get a rough quantitative estimate of the implications for the unemployment rate, suppose that the expansion of unemployment-insurance coverage to 99 weeks had not occurred and—I assume—the share of long-term unemployment had equaled the peak value of 24.5% observed in July 1983. Then, if the number of unemployed 26 weeks or less in June 2010 had still equaled the observed value of 7.9 million, the total number of unemployed would have been 10.4 million rather than 14.6 million. If the labor force still equaled the observed value (153.7 million), the unemployment rate would have been 6.8% rather than 9.5%.

Consider how the prospects for Democrats in the November elections would look if the unemployment rate were now only 6.8%. Obviously, this change would make all the difference, and President Obama can reasonably blame his economic advisers. They should have protected their boss by standing firm and arguing that a reckless expansion of unemployment-insurance coverage to 99 weeks was unwise economically and politically.

Unfortunately, due to this "generous" folly - many more than "just" the unemployed suffer.

Insanity

What's the definition of insanity?  Doing the same thing, over and over again, and expecting different results.

So, now we have had not one, but two government tax credits for buyers.  Most concur that at best, the credit caused people who were going to purchase later to move up their decision to purchase.  Once the credit expires, the market freezes. Ask any Realtor or seller right now how that tax credit thingie is working now - particularly in Minnesota.  I think our stats showed that sales dropped by 42%!!

My opinion (and it was this prior to the credits being instituted) is that you have to allow markets to function on their own.  Given what has been happening to our housing market and our credit markets, it appears that the process may well be long and painful for many.  Nevertheless, sometimes you gotta take the medicine and work through it all.  Placing a bandaid on a gaping wound will not do the trick.  Indeed - some think that the credits actually do more harm than anything.  People put off making a decision, hoping that the government will offer some goody to them if they just wait long enough for it to happen.

Thus, when I saw this bit of news over at HotAir, my stomach turned.

Donovan did not rule out a further homebuyer tax credit to support the market. Congress passed a homebuyer tax credit to support first-time buyers. The credit has now expired.

“I think it’s too early to say after one month of numbers whether the tax credit will be revived or not,” Donovan said.

As Ed says:

The markets have two problems: irrational pricing, a leftover from the bubble collapse, and unemployment.  The housing bubble collapsed in 2008, but thanks to gimmicky interventions like the homebuyer tax credit, values haven’t yet reached their rational level.  Further interventions will only further delay the inevitable.

What will solve that problem will be the entry of more buyers into the market — and that’s not going to happen until we start creating a lot more jobs.  Even if prices hit a rational level, owners still need qualified borrowers to buy them.  Until we start creating jobs, we won’t generate new and qualified buyers — and people who are already fearful of their existing jobs aren’t likely to jump into real estate investments of any kind, either.

We need to focus on the underpinning of our economy, and what got us to where we are today.  Trying to prop up a system that is broken with gimmicks - when it has not yet worked - is, as Einstein said - insanity.

Welcome to My World

 
This article at the New York Times is the best I've read about how we got from the lala land of the last decade's housing bubble to the frozen tundra of a market that we see today.

Just as the subprime bubble of 2006 and 2007 required one kind of perfect storm — namely, incentives to throw underwriting standards out the window — we are now living through the opposite kind of perfect storm. Essentially, every participant in the housing market has a reason to be afraid. And that fear is paralyzing.

I am no financial guru, nor do I have a crystal ball about the future of various markets.  I do know, however, as I worked with clients in the mid 90's, over and over I kept on thinking to myself, "It is impossible for this to go on forever."  And I shared this belief with clients.  When they'd say to me, "Well; we may stay put for a while.  After all, our house appreciates 15% a year," I'd explain that it was literally impossible for that to happen, as incomes and other assets only increased a few percent a year.  Like economist Megan McArdle, I really didn't know when the party would be over - and I never dreamed that it would be as deep and serious and painful and frozen as it actually is.  I only knew that the trajectory upward and onward would have to end.

Equality

In our Declaration of Independence, we find this fundamental assertion: 

We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness.

But what exactly does this mean?  Does it mean that everyone ought to have a similar life?  That each of us should have roughly the same material goods, careers, families, goals, experiences?  Nope.  That would be impossible.  These words mean that we all should be equal in the eyes of the law, that no one should be deprived of the right to pursue life and freedom and their happiness because of who they are rather than what they do.

Yet, too many have come to believe that the assertion "men are created equal" does mean something like a guarantee of a certain type of life.  Everyone should have a certain sort of lifestyle.  Everyone should have a certain retirement.  Everyone should be guaranteed happiness and freedom from want and success.

Over at my friend Christopher Fountain's blog, Christopher commented on the ludicrous ruling that Hooters could not discriminate against women judged not attractive enough to work in their restaurants.  This led to a discussion of "equality", plus a recommendation to read Kurt Vonnegut's story on the same.  I found the story online, and it does perfectly capture the insanity of a government trying not to guarantee its citizens equality of rights, but instead an equal outcome.

Yet, forget fiction.  All we need do is look at the sorry state of our nation today.  Then, we can see the catastrophic ramifications of trying to create equal outcomes for everyone.

The Cleansing of Iran

A fatwa against PETS?!?!?

In June, Ayatollah Shirazi declared dogs unclean, saying that dog owners were “blindly imitating the West” and that their devotion to the animals would result in “evil outcomes”.

“Many people in the West love their dogs more than their wives and children,” he said.

Well, YEAH........!!

Two Americas?

More than once, I've had my liberal friends tell me that they wish we could separate into Two Americas.  The separation would be by political ideology.  To hear them tell it, they would get the successful urban cities, entrepreneurs, writers, artists - the monetary wealth and cultural wealth of our nation.  The rest of us would reside in some dreary place where racists, the devout, homophobes and misogynists could congregate. 

Maybe they'd toss us an engineer or plumber.

Today, however, Pat Sajak wonders what it might be like if we could really divide by political persuasion.  Not surprisingly, Pat has a different take on it all...

Do read the comments, too.  Some are very worthwhile.

Who Wants to Be a Millionaire?

 
Since 2007, one million private jobs have been lost in California. Median incomes of workers in the state's private sector have stagnated for more than a decade. To make matters worse, the retirement accounts of those workers in California have declined. The average 401(k) is down nationally nearly 20% since 2007. Meanwhile, the defined benefit retirement plans of government employees—for which private-sector workers are on the hook—have risen in value.

Few Californians in the private sector have $1 million in savings, but that's effectively the retirement account they guarantee to public employees who opt to retire at age 55 and are entitled to a monthly, inflation-protected check of $3,000 for the rest of their lives.

In 2003, just before I became governor, the state assembly even passed a law permitting government employees to purchase additional taxpayer-guaranteed, high-yielding retirement annuities at a discount—adding even more retirement debt. It's as if Sacramento legislators don't want a government of the people, by the people, and for the people, but a government of the employees, by the employees, and for the employees.

For years I've asked state legislators to stop adding to retirement debt. They have refused. Now the Democratic leadership of the assembly proposes to raise the tax and debt burdens on private employees in order to cover rising public-employee compensation.

If you want yet another reason why our nation is in so much trouble right now, then read all of Governor Schwarzenegger's op ed from the Wall Street Journal.

 

Who's Stupid Now?

A liberal relative of mine sent me a copy of Timothy Egan of the New York Times "Opinionator" column.

If anything should cause one to appreciate how far the mighty Times has fallen - this would be it.

I sent back an email to my relative most briefly explaining why Egan's writings were basically a POS.  But the guys at Powerline did a vastly superior job.  So - thanks, Powerline guys - and here you go.  Do read through it all.

To conclude: are there a lot of dumb Americans? Sure. What else is new? Are there some dumb Republicans? No doubt, but by any objective measure--educational attainment, income, success in life--Republicans are, on the average, smarter than Democrats.

The American people haven't gotten any stupider lately, but there has been a precipitous decline in the competence of those who write for the New York Times. I think it is now safe to say that the average New York Times columnist is not as smart as the average American.

In reality, the New York Times still has some fine journalists.  Why then do they allow truly gutter tripe like this to appear in its pages?

Has their liberal bias gone so deep that they are no longer able to discern the difference between top quality journalism and lower-than-junk garbage?

You Say "Tomato"

 

And I say "Tomahto."

If it weren't for my good friend, Professor Keith Burgess-Jackson, my blog might never have seen the light of day.  Ritually, I would read his blog about politics, philosophy, current events, pets - and more - and occasionally comment.  Over and over, Keith encouraged me to start my own blog; eventually, I did.

On a great many topics, the professor and I agree.  Yet, inevitably, on a few we do not.  The topic of gay marriage is one.  Keith, not surprisingly, puts the phrase in quotes: gay "marriage."  Rather than quote Keith, you can read his opinions directly.  Since Keith believes that marriage is intimately involved with the bearing and raising of children, gay relationships would, for the most part, be outside this classification.

I am no expert on the history of marriage.  From what I have read, though, it appears that marriage has changed some over the centuries.  And, not surprisingly, marriage has different customs in different societies throughout history.

As An American

Some of my friends who share many of my political and philosophical beliefs do not share this one:  I'm in favor of gay marriage.  To those who are conservative, I have argued (as have some others) that support of gay marriage is conservative.  Conservatives support long lasting relationships, fidelity and are against promiscuity.  At least in theory, marriage, irrespective of one's sexual orientation, promotes this.

Of course, not all those on the left side of the aisle are with me in supporting gay marriage.  Perhaps the most prominent of the non-supporters is President Obama.  I've seen many presidential fans twist themselves more than a pretzel trying to explain why it's OK that the president thinks people should not have the same legal standing in our society, based upon their orientation.  What I prefer, however, is straightforward columns like this one.

Just a Little

Just won't cut it.

Republicans might be able to win a number of races this fall, due to the simple fact that they aren't Democrats.  Yet, if you think "not being Democrats" is going to help our nation in a transformative way, you're wrong.

Are you someone who thinks that Republican politicians haven't been deserving of much (any?) praise?  Join the crowd. This Examiner editorial highlights that "not the other guys" will definitely not be good enough.

Those Bush years too often displayed little difference between Republicans and Democrats in Washington. Much of the vast expansion of the federal government by Democrats was previewed by the Bush-led Republicans. Obamacare's overreach? Don't forget the Republicans' entitlement-expanding and budget-busting Medicare Part D. In fact, Republicans were off the reservation long before Bush ever entered office. The 1994 Republican revolution marked the first time in more than 40 years that Republicans held a congressional majority. They won while pledging specific policy goals in their Contract with America, including term limits, a balanced budget amendment, and welfare reform. Some significant progress was made but in a few years the revolution was all but abandoned. The Cato Institute's Ed Crane recently noted that the "combined budgets of the 95 major programs that the Contract with America promised to eliminate ... increased by 13 percent."

Half a Billion Here--

Half a billion there; soon you'll be talking about real money.

If you want to know why our nation is going broke, then read this.

Next month's opening of the Robert F. Kennedy Community Schools will be auspicious for a reason other than its both storied and infamous history as the former Ambassador Hotel, where the Democratic presidential contender was assassinated in 1968.

With an eye-popping price tag of $578 million, it will mark the inauguration of the nation's most expensive public school ever.

At RFK, the features include fine art murals and a marble memorial depicting the complex's namesake, a manicured public park, a state-of-the-art swimming pool and preservation of pieces of the original hotel.

Then, there is this classic statement: 

"Architects and builders love this stuff, but there's a little bit of a lack of discipline here," said Mary Filardo, executive director of 21st Century School Fund in Washington, D.C.,

Gee; ya think?!?

When I sent the link to a girlfriend of mine who lives in California, she responded:  "This is nothing in contrast to what we're spending on teachers' pensions."

A news story like this leaves me almost speechless. 

Respect

In the last week, I cannot count how many columns I have read about the proposed mosque in New York City by Ground Zero.  Some believe that its construction would be a travesty; others think that not building it would be the same.  Insults against those who have views counter fly back and forth.

I have read a few viewpoints that are thoughtful and balanced.  Here is one by Karen Hughes.

I believe that most Americans who oppose locating a mosque near Ground Zero are neither anti-freedom nor anti-Muslim; they just don't believe it's respectful, given what happened there. I say that as someone who strongly believes that the Sept. 11 attackers and other members of al-Qaeda do not represent any faith, but instead taint all faith with their acts of murder. I met many Muslims around the world who feel that, along with airplanes, the terrorists hijacked their religion.

A mosque at the edge of Ground Zero would be much more than a house of worship; it would be a symbol, interpreted differently by different audiences. For some it would be the ultimate expression of the freedom of religion we enjoy in America; for others, a searing reminder of terrible deaths at the hands of murderers calling themselves Muslims. I suspect that the terrorists might celebrate its presence as a twisted victory over our society's freedoms. Rauf and his congregation are certainly free to locate their mosque near Ground Zero. But I hope and pray that they will show uncommon courtesy and decide not to.

Overload

Sometimes the world works in mysterious ways.

For those few who routinely read my blog, perhaps you have noticed that I haven't posted anything for a few days.  It wasn't that I didn't have the time.  It wasn't that I had stopped keeping up with the news and world issues; far from it.  The problem was that I felt overwhelmed.  So much to do.  So much that seemed impossible to do properly.  So many unknowns, so many enormous difficulties. 

I got to the point that even ridiculously simple tasks:  selecting a new cell phone, updating my bridge notes, contacting real estate clients, writing a small article - all seemed crushingly difficult.  Paralysis set in - including for what if?

And then - I read this Peggy Noonan column just now.

"A Little Bit More Reckless"

Want an object lesson in why the world is a better place when people are responsible for themselves?

Here you go.

In a handsome prewar building in Greenwich Village, a tenant struggled to remember the last time she turned off her air-conditioner. Upstairs, a young couple admitted to having let the window unit run for four days while they went out of town for a funeral, thinking it would be nice, amid the July heat wave, to return to a cool apartment.

Another resident of the 160-unit building, on Seventh Avenue between 13th and 14th Streets, says he leaves the air-conditioning on when he goes to work, when he sleeps at his girlfriend’s apartment, even when he leaves the country on vacation — and only partly out of sympathy for his cat, Kitty.

“My A.C. is pretty much running 24/7,” Kitty’s owner, Michael Perlo, a 28-year-old television producer, said with more bravado than guilt. “Not having to pay for electricity makes me a little bit more reckless.”

Forget round-the-clock doormen or views of Central Park. This sweltering summer, the most coveted New York real estate amenity is two little words that in other times can go unnoticed: “utilities included.” Mr. Perlo and his neighbors live in a building where not just heat and hot water, but electricity, is part of their monthly rent — a more-common-than-you’d-think arrangement caused by old-fashioned wiring in which a building has a single “master meter” tracking power use rather than individual meters tied to each tenant. They can blast their air-conditioners all summer long without paying a dollar extra.

“This is Homo economicus coming out in full feather,” said Prof. Lawrence J. White of New York University’s Leonard N. Stern School of Business. “When something is free, until some point of satiation, you will take up a lot of it.”

America The Beautiful

 
Why some of us love our country so - and are utterly baffled by those who excoriate it.

Privately, the hardest leftist knows that millions of Mexican nationals or Muslims want to enter the U.S. But then why that is so is never voiced. Does anyone simply tell the truth? The combination of private property, free markets, transparency, personal freedom, limited government, meritocracy, and a singular constitution makes life here good. And rather than appreciate such an exceptional system, much less defend the idea of it, we beat each other up that we are mere mortals, not gods, and, my God, we can find a supposed misdemeanor here amid rampant felonies abroad.

This is the most tolerant society in the world, the most multiracial and richest in religious diversity — and the most critical of its exceptional tolerance and the most lax in pointing out the intolerance of the least diverse and liberal.

It is market capitalism, unfettered meritocracy, and individual initiative within a free society that create the wealth for Al Gore to live in Montecito (indeed to create a Montecito in the first place), or for Michelle to jet to Marbella, or for John Kerry to buy a $7 million yacht. We know that, but our failure to occasionally express such a truth, coupled with a constant race/class/gender critique of American society, results in an insidious demoralization among the educated and bewilderment among the half- and uneducated.

In short, the great enigma of our postmodern age is how American society grew so wealthy and free to create so many residents that became so angry at the conditions that have made them so privileged — and how so many millions abroad fled the intolerance and poverty of their home country, and yet on arrival almost magically romanticize the very conditions in the abstract that they would never live under again in the concrete.

(And, another beautiful photo from flyoverpeople.net.)

 

A Plain Discovery

As most of you know, next to bridge, there is little I love as much as exquisite photography.  Thus, when I find someone new who creates magical photographs, I do get excited.

 

A friend posted this website on Facebook today.  I love driving through the plains of the Midwest - and these photographs of same are magnificent.  Dave Leiker (the talented photographer) - thank you!  Enjoy!

MOB-Fest

It's been ages since I've been to a Minnesota Organization of Bloggers (MOB) party.  So - last night, I rectified that deficiency!

Although I didn't know many there - great to see good friends and meet new ones.  Here are some photos that I posted on Facebook.  Thanks to Mitch Berg at Shot in the Dark for organizing!

 
BTW - here is the littlest blogger of them all!  Ben is a mere 3 weeks (yes, this is his first blogging party) - and his folks met through blogging! 

Stiff Medicine

As Sally said in "When Harry Met Sally" - "I just like it the way I like it."

Ah.  Don't we all!?

Unfortunately, we have become a people incredibly too spoiled and amazingly unappreciative of what we do have.  Latest case in point:  teachers demanding "a stiff one," paid for by taxpayers.

The Milwaukee Teachers' Education Assn. has gone to court asking a judge to order the financially strapped school board to reinstate coverage for Viagra, Levitra, Cialis and other erectile dysfunction drugs in union members' healthcare plans. The union claims that excluding such coverage discriminates against the male gender.

Being of the gentler sex, personal lack of an erection is something I shall never have to face.  And - don't get me wrong.  I do not dismiss that it is a real problem for sufferers.  Still - it is one thing to acknowledge that difficulty having sex is unfortunate, and that difficulty having sex is something that our government is required to fix.

A great deal of life is difficult and messy and complicated and unappealing.  But - a great deal of it is not the responsibility of our government . . . it's just "life."  As Rush Limbaugh aptly has noted - life simply is not fair.

Life isn't fair.  I mean, it just isn't, and there's no way that you can change certain aspects that make life unfair to make them fair.  Life is not equal.  Sometimes people earn more than others.  Some people have children when other people can't.  There's nothing unfair about that.  That's just the way it is.  Unspeakable tragedies happen to some families; they don't happen to others.  Some people live a long time; some people don't. 

The Gulf's True Disaster

Sadly, the real disaster in the gulf is not the oil spill nor ecological tragedy - but this.

Four months after the Deepwater Horizon spill — which President Obama called the “worst environmental disaster America has ever faced” — the oil is disappearing, and fisheries are returning to normal. It turns out that this incident exposed some things that are seriously wrong in the world of oil — and I don’t mean exploding wells. There was a broad-based failure on the part of the media, the science establishment, and the federal bureaucracy. With the nation and its leaders looking for facts, we got instead a massive plume of apocalyptic mythology and threats of Armageddon. In the Gulf, this misinformation has cost jobs, lowered property values, and devastated tourism, and its effects on national policy could be deep and far-reaching.

 Do read the whole thing.