what if?

Mountains

Some muse about whether another president would ever be added to Mount Rushmore.  What achievements would it take? 

We can ponder that question.  In the meantime, however, President Obama has achieved "mountains" of his own, in a way that no president prior to him has.

Slouching Toward Europe

One pundit thinks it's too late; we're already there.

This year, the fourth straight year that we borrowed more than $1 trillion to support the U.S. government, our budget deficit will top $1.3 trillion, 8.7 percent of our GDP. If you think that sounds bad, it’s because it is. In fact, only two European countries, Greece and Ireland, have larger budget deficits as a percentage of GDP. Things are only slightly better when you look at the size of our national debt, which now exceeds $15.3 trillion, 102 percent of GDP. Just four European countries have larger national debts than we do — Greece and Ireland again, plus Portugal and Italy. That means the U.S. government is actually less fiscally responsible than countries like France, Belgium, or Spain.

And as bad as things are right now, we are on an even worse course for the future. If one adds the unfunded liabilities of Social Security and Medicare to our official national debt, we really owe $72 trillion, by the Obama administration’s projections for future Medicare savings under Obamacare, and as much as $137 trillion if you use more realistic projections. Under the best-case scenario, then, this amounts to more than 480 percent of GDP. And, under more realistic projections, we owe an astounding 911 percent of GDP.

Meanwhile, counting both official debt and unfunded pension and health-care liabilities, the most indebted nation in Europe is Greece, which owes 875 percent of GDP. That’s right, the United States potentially owes more than Greece. France, the second most insolvent nation in Europe, owes just 549 percent of GDP. Even under the most optimistic scenario, we owe more than such fiscal basket cases as Ireland, Italy, Portugal, and Spain.

All my life, I've been fiscally responsible.  No material goods are more important to me than knowing that I have funds for what is really necessary in life.  Reading the above statistics makes me ill.

Nevertheless, I also am an optimist.  I am hoping - against hope - that our nation will come to its senses and start undertaking the hard work necessary to return to health.  Still - at some point, the burden may be too great.

Here's hoping that we are not beyond the "too late" point (even if we are Europe!)  And that we have the strength and courage and wisdom to do what is necessary.

 

 

Jeans and Genes

Having trouble fitting into your favorite jeans?  Part of the problem might be your other set of genes....

For the past 200,000 years or so, fatty and sugary foods were hard for humans to come by and well worth gorging on. Fats help maintain body temperature, sugars provide energy, and craving such food is hardwired: Eating fats and sugars activates reward centers in the brain.

Scientists are finding that the degree to which we experience those cravings can also be influenced by genes. Obesity runs in families, and although scientists still don’t know just how much of craving is hereditary and how much is learned, they have located more than 100 genes that seem to be linked to the disease. To evolve out of cravings, we’d need to stop passing down these genes.

Au Revoir, Workforce

What's one way to get your unemployment numbers looking a bit better?  Call a bunch of those not working disabled!

The sputtering economy has fueled those ranks. Around 5.3 percent of the population between the ages of 25 and 64 is currently collecting federal disability payments, a jump from 4.5 percent since the economy slid into a recession.

Mental-illness claims, in particular, are surging. During the recent economic boom, only 33 percent of applicants were claiming mental illness, but that figure has jumped to 43 percent, says Rutledge, citing preliminary results from his latest research. …

The jump in successful disability claims also is making the unemployment picture look extra rosy because those folks are falling off the jobless rolls.

“If they’re on disability they’re generally not counted,” says Feroli, who estimates that a quarter of those dropping out of the job market are getting disability. “It’s no trivial number.”

Right now, I know a father and adult child combo who are now "disabled."  They've headed for an island retreat, collecting roughly $3,000 a month in "disability" payments between them. 

Not sure what makes me angrier.  People taking advantage of the system while others bust their rear ends to stay afloat - or the whole scenario propping up The One's re-election opportunities while his minions crow about the improving economy.

"Let Speech Breed Speech"

Most of us say we're in favor of free speech.  Nevertheless, too many of us, when push comes to shove, really aren't.  They're for "good speech"....  In essence, we're all for "good speech!"  It's the speech that many of us dislike - or do not want to hear - that needs protecting.

Many people seem to think that political speech that is funded should be limited.

They're wrong.

Eliot Spitzer explains.

Eliot Spitzer broke with liberal tradition, saying the Supreme Court’s 2010 decision in Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission was the right call.

"I am with the ACLU [American Civil Liberties Union] on this one. I think as a First Amendment principle, Citizens United was correct.”

He told Maher that there is no distinction between some shows on the airwaves — all owned by corporations — and a company’s participation in politics through paid advertising.

“Your show is owned by a corporation,” Spitzer said to Maher. “You have a First Amendment right. And so I don’t know how you distinguish between the New York Times editorial page, The Rachel Maddow Show, George [Stephanopoulos]‘s show — all owned by corporations.”

“The First Amendment,” he reminded Maher, says government “shall pass no law abridging the right of speech.”

And why is this superior to limiting speech?  Again - Spitzer states why.

But as a First Amendment principle, people should be able to say what they want, how they want with their own money. I don’t care if it’s [Sheldon] Adelson or somebody who is of my political views on the left. Let speech breed speech.

“‘You never defeat speech by limiting speech’ is the First Amendment principle by which I live. I just think we’ll be a healthier democracy for it.”

The best way to combat speech you don't like is with more speech.  Not by squelching someone's else's freedom.

From Germany to Minneapolis

And back again.

He was proud to wear the jersey but also solemn about what history had done to the name on the back. His great-grandfather starved to death by the Nazis. His great-grandmother herded to extermination on a train to Auschwitz. His grandfather shuttled between ghettos and concentration camps, surviving somehow, finding a displaced sister after the war, pushing her from a hospital in a wheelbarrow after her lower left leg was amputated because of frostbite.

On Feb. 10, Kaufmann finished dressing and skated onto the ice at a tournament in Belarus. With his initial shift, he became one of the few Jews to represent Germany in elite international sports since World War II, the first in ice hockey since the 1930s and perhaps the most visible to have had family members murdered in the Holocaust, according to sports historians and Jewish officials.

“It was almost surreal,” said Kaufmann, 27, a forward who was born in Minnesota and is the second-leading goal scorer here for the DEG Metro Stars of the German professional league. “From an achievement standpoint, it was amazing to represent the country. But it was pretty insane to think about what my grandpa had to survive to allow me to be where I am today and how it’s come a long way from then to now.”

Should Evan Kaufmann play hockey for the nation that murdered so many of his ancestors?  Clearly, a most personal decision.  I must admit, however, that I share this viewpoint:

“Obviously, you never want to forget,” Kaufmann said. “But everybody deserves a second chance and a right to rectify their mistakes. Most people today had nothing to do with it. I’m not going to hold it against a whole country for what happened long ago. You’re never going to move forward if you keep doing that.”

Never, ever forget.  Yet, do not blame future generations for what was done by their ancestors.

 

Miss Manners

Remember when Gabby Giffords and others were attacked and some killed in Arizona?  The President rightly spoke out about how we all ought to have civil discourse following that terrible incident.  Though we found out that the attacker was mentally disturbed, the message still stands as an important one.

Well; about a year later, how's that civility campaign coming?  Not so good, so it would seem.

On Thursday, Charles Koch authorized employees of Koch Industries to reveal the contents of “hundreds of e-mails that the Kochs and employees have received in the last year, some of them containing death threats.” The Wichita Eagle, Koch Industries’ home-town newspaper, reported:

Charles Koch, his brother and employees have in recent months been getting death threats, hundreds of obscenity-laced hate messages, and harassment from some far left-wing groups, Koch said on Thursday. …

“I hope you all DIE,” one e-mail, received last year, said. “You people are ruining our country, and all for $$$.” “Choose your expiration Date, Brothers…” said another. “The Koch brothers will DIE!!!!!” said another.

There were hundreds more — some from Wisconsin, where the Kochs were accused of aiding Gov. Scott Walker in his disputes against unions. Most of them were signed with what appear to be real names, many contained obscenities, and some Koch employees said these messages had made them nervous. …

What Cannot Continue

Will not.

About seven years ago, this principle continued to run through my head.  As a Realtor, I'd go to see newly listed homes for sale, and wonder "How is it possible that this house is selling for so much?!?"  It wasn't just a few houses here or there.  It was many houses, day after day, week after week.  Homes that I thought were overpriced by at least 10% - if not more - would sell in a week.  At their asking price.

I'd meet with homeowners who were considering putting their homes on the market.  "I'm not sure we should sell," many would muse.  "After all, we're making 10-15% a year on the house."  "Oh, yeah," I'd think to myself.  Your house goes up 10-15% annually - while incomes are increasing only 3% or so a year.  This cannot continue to happen.

I wasn't even aware of the gross fraud and incredibly lax lending standards in some states.  Yet, just on the math alone, our real estate world of the last decade couldn't continue.  And - as we know - it did not.  We ended up with the debacle that continues on today. 

Many ended up on the road to bankruptcy because of the real estate bubble.  Why is it so difficult for our nation to see that we are marching toward another bankruptcy because of our government's incredibly unsustainable fiscal policies?

What a Way to Go

Zelda Kaplan, a philanthropist and energetic - if geriatric -Manhattan nightlife fixture, known for her African print dresses and oversize sunglasses died Wednesday after collapsing at Fashion Week on Wednesday. She was 95.

 

Kaplan fainted in the front row of the Joanna Mastroianni runway show as the models began walking, just moments after she had posed for photogs wearing a festive red skirt suit.

She was carried out by security and rushed to the hospital where she died.

Zelda was no relation (pity).  But, she went out just as I hope I might.  She was doing what she loved, right in the thick of things - then gone.   Of course, we don't get to choose.  Yet, just in case someone up there  is listening - sounds good to me!

Protecting Voter Fraud

Millions of dead people are registered to vote.  Many are registered in more than one state.  So - why do Democrats still reject voter ID - even when it is provided at no cost to anyone who cannot afford it?

We know why.  It's so they can cheat and win elections that they might otherwise lose.

The Justice Department blocked South Carolina's new photo ID law. And NAACP President Benjamin Jealous attacked the reforms as "the greatest assault on voting rights ... since the dawn of Jim Crow."

Democrats make two bogus arguments. First, that ballot fraud isn't "widespread" enough to merit the new requirement, as though there's such a thing as a tolerable level of fraud. Second, that picture ID laws would suppress voter turnout among minorities.

In fact, states with picture ID laws go out of their way to make sure everyone who needs an ID can get one. Plus, turnout in Indiana and Georgia swelled after their laws went into effect, and the Supreme Court already ruled that picture ID laws don't infringe on anyone's right to vote.

Given this, it's hard to escape the conclusion that Democrats count on exploiting an inept and tattered registration system to help them win close elections. If that isn't the case, they should prove it by backing a reform that would do much to protect the sanctity of the ballot box.

Severely Wrong

Recently, Mitt Romney made the claim that he is "severely conservative."  Many of us chuckled (or was it wincing?) at this kind of locution.

But Romney's most recent tough competition is, as Gene Healy puts it, "severely wrong."

A recent Time magazine symposium asked leading thinkers on the Right, "What Is Conservatism?" Anti-tax advocate Grover Norquist offered this answer: "Conservatives ask only one thing of the government. They wish to be left alone."

Tell that to Santorum, whose agenda rests on meddling with other people, sometimes with laws, sometimes with aircraft carrier groups.

"This idea that people should be left alone, be able to do whatever they want to do," Santorum complained to NPR in 2006, "that we shouldn't get involved in the bedroom, we shouldn't get involved in cultural issues ... that is not how traditional conservatives view the world."

The only people I want "involved in my bedroom" are me and whomever I happen to invite in there with me.  If there are others who want Santorum to dictate their bedroom behavior, then they are fine to have him "get involved."  But for me - and many others, I would guess - we just wish to be left alone.

The Cupboard is Bare

So let's see.  There are untold billions for "green" companies, favored corporations and a byzantine collection of government programs set in stone.  But a good education for DC students?  One that is less than half the cost of the crappy, public school type?  Sorry.  The cupboard is bare.

He’s intent on killing this program. Remember when he tried to kill it slowly back in 2009, promising to fund it until the current participants graduated high school and then to pull the plug? We’re talking about something like $20 million in a budget of $3.8 trillion and somehow he can’t scrape together the money for scholarships for poor kids to go to private school. When you can’t get a few crumbs from a multitrillion-dollar pie, there must be a very, very important reason.

The D.C. OSP has been highly successful. According to federally-mandated evaluations of the program, student achievement has increased, and graduation rates of voucher students have increased significantly. While graduation rates in D.C. Public Schools hover around 55 percent, students who used a voucher to attend private school had a 91 percent graduation rate.

And at $8,000, the vouchers are a bargain compared to the estimated $18,000 spent per child by D.C. Public Schools.

The Department of Education’s budget will increase 3.5 percent if the proposal is enacted, continuing a failed trend of spending more taxpayer dollars through Washington on a myriad of programs with a poor track record.

By contrast, the D.C. OSP has a stellar track record of increasing academic success, student safety, and parental satisfaction. And because of the nature of the District of Columbia (education in D.C. is under the jurisdiction of Congress), it is entirely appropriate for the federal government to fund the D.C. OSP.

Instead, the President's pet programs are ones like this:

The White House intends to boost government subsidies for wealthy buyers of the Chevy Volt and other new-technology vehicles — to $10,000 per buyer.

That mammoth subsidy would cost taxpayers $100 million each year if it is approved by Congress, presuming only 10,000 new-technology autos are sold each year…

The new subsidy level represents a 33 percent jump from the current $7,500 government payout for each Volt buyer, even though the Volt’s buyers are already among the wealthiest Americans. It will be offered to buyers of any new-technology autos, including battery-powered autos and cars powered by natural gas, said a White House official.

If these are really liberal values, then please - please do not ever think that I am a liberal. 

Choice

Why is it that when it comes to choice, sometimes it seems as if abortion is the only aspect of life in which liberals want to allow us to have a choice!?

Case in point.....

Opponents of allowing younger workers to privately invest a portion of their Social Security taxes through personal accounts have long pointed to the supposed riskiness of private investment. The volatility of private capital markets over the past several years, and especially recent declines in the stock market, have seemed to bolster their argument. However, private capital investment remains remarkably safe over the long term. Despite recent declines in the stock market, a worker who had invested privately over the past 40 years would have still earned an average yearly return of 6.85 percent investing in the S&P 500, 3.46 percent from corporate bonds, and 2.44 percent from government bonds. If workers who retired in 2011 had been allowed to invest the employee half of the Social Security payroll tax over their working lifetime, they would retire with more income than if they relied on Social Security. Indeed, even in the worst-case scenario—a low-wage worker who invested entirely in bonds—the benefits from private investment would equal those from traditional Social Security.

Leave the current system in place, if you wish, for those who don't want to "take the risk."  Why, however, can't everyone else have the opportunity to fund a far more substantial retirement?

Giving Up

Ray has given up.

During a drive between the Mon Valley towns of McKeesport and Elizabeth, a man named Ray was overheard calling into a local radio station to talk about the subject of the hour: November's presidential election.

The first thing he said is that he is a Democrat who voted for Barack Obama in 2008. Pressed by the talk-show host, he said he would not vote for Obama this time.

The rest of Ray's answer was not unique or remarkable: Yes, he is a union member. Yes, he wanted Obama to succeed. And, yes, he is very disappointed after giving the president more than enough chances to prove he can lead.

Ray said he had finally given up.

Let's hope that there are Rays of Hope throughout the nation.

Equality

Yes, it is about equality.

Taxes and Progressivity

Are taxes in the U.S. a heavier burden on middle class and poor people than in other nations?  Do the wealthy get sweetheart deals?

No. 

In fact, the U.S. has a highly progressive tax system.

Income taxes in America are more progressive than in other rich countries--according to an authoritiative official study which, to my knowledge, has not been contradicted. The OECD's report "Growing Unequal", on poverty and inequality in industrial countries, includes a table that provides two measures of income tax progressivity in 2005. This is evidently the source of de Rugy's numbers. Here they are in an excel file. According to one measure, America's income taxes were the most progressive of the 24 countries in the sample, except for Ireland. According to the other, they were the most progressive full stop. (A more recent OECD report, "Divided We Stand", uses different data, a smaller sample of countries and a different measure of progressivity: the results are similar.)

Do not, however, expect liberal writers like Jonathan Chait and Paul Krugman to apologize.  Instead, they specialize in name calling to deflate the arguments (rooted in fact) of those with whom they disagree.

Perhaps I would, too, if I attempted to argue for false conclusions like they do.

Freedom and Our Future

 

That some wish to recall the governor to the east of me, Wisconsin's Scott Walker, is an amazement.  Here is his speech from CPAC.

 

Away from Bigotry

Many of my blogging friends are conservative.  And, although some of my conservative friends and colleagues are strongly in favor of gay rights and promoting the notion of marriage for all (such as Ted Olson), irrespective of sexual orientation, many are not.

Let us first stipulate:  reasonable minds can disagree on the topic of gay marriage.  After all, our very liberal president, Barack Obama, states that he is not a supporter of gay marriage.  Nevertheless, what I believe we should not do is assume that gay people are "less than".  If conservatives and Republicans want to win more elections and be able to implement the principles that are important to them, then they need a "big tent."  Conservatives who happen to be gay should not be turned away at the door.  At this year's CPAC convention, however, that is exactly what happened.  Margaret Hoover explains.

Principles for America

Paul Ryan, Republican representative from Wisconsin, gave a speech at CPAC (Conservative Political Action Committee) this week.  Here are some excerpts.

Home Sweet Home

I am a homebody.  Some love to party hearty or shop 'till they drop.  I love to be at home, doing myriad activities on the laptop or watching a good movie with Mr Mollo.  Still - I do venture out for that which is important to me.  Voting for a new president in November is one of those important events.

Nevertheless, of the current Republican frontrunners, one displeases me mightily - and for more than one reason.  If Rick Santorum is the candidate, I'll be at home, sweet home.  Here is why.